Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
